Modern business runs on innovation, wise decision making, cooperation and timing. Obviously the speed at which this is done can be advantageous. But speed isn't always the most important thing... Yes in warfare, in sports and in a very competitive business environment it is, but what may be important to most is doing things better tomorrow than was done yesterday... Or better next month than last month... Or better next year than last.
With the current business environment it seems small businesses are being edged out of the marketplace by much larger corporate structures. This may sound like a big problem... but to a non-linear thinker, the bigger the problem... the bigger the opportunity.
If you look at the food industry for example, corporate chains have proliferated the market... the mom and pops of old have, for the most part, disappeared. Even as the market is expanding, as more people are dining out with both parents working, the competitive edge of mass production of food and food service has given corporate chains a distinct advantage. Thus most small mom and pop restaurants have disappeared.
Corporate systems in general prescribe to linear thinking. These processes streamline production but rarely lead to groundbreaking innovation. As Gen. Van Riper points out below in the second video (Leadership Part 1) he mentions the second law of thermodynamics... that all closed systems trend toward entropy(chaos). For the small businessman, the non-linear thinker, this also means an opportunity. What opportunity I'm not sure... I'm not in the food business. But an innovator in that business can surely tell you.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Hayek vs. Keynes ... A conflict that's been going on for a century
"The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." ~John Maynard Keynes
I am not a expert in economics but I consider myself knowledgeable enough to have an opinion. I will be more than happy to admit I am impartial. Most have little clue of what economics entails and ever fewer are concerned about it. Unfortunately, it does matter... In fact, it matters much more than who is running Congress or who is sitting in the White House. With the advent of a Central Bank in the United States in 1913, it was inevitable that the central bankers would have to invent or elevate an economic model that would make their role essential in the functioning of the economy. Luckily or otherwise, John Maynard Keynes came along with his General Theory and his animal spirits... however, his wasn't the only idea, at the time there was another economist, F.A. Hayek, who pointed out the problems with the Keynesian economic model and advocated another model -the Austrian model of economics. The major problem with Keynes' theory according to Hayek... inflation and malinvestment would always create a Boom and then a Bust. The lines were drawn.
With all the money that could be printed to back up his "idea", it wasn't long before Keynesian economics ruled the world... and politicians, especially those who had no interest in being fiscally responsible, jumped for joy!
I am not a expert in economics but I consider myself knowledgeable enough to have an opinion. I will be more than happy to admit I am impartial. Most have little clue of what economics entails and ever fewer are concerned about it. Unfortunately, it does matter... In fact, it matters much more than who is running Congress or who is sitting in the White House. With the advent of a Central Bank in the United States in 1913, it was inevitable that the central bankers would have to invent or elevate an economic model that would make their role essential in the functioning of the economy. Luckily or otherwise, John Maynard Keynes came along with his General Theory and his animal spirits... however, his wasn't the only idea, at the time there was another economist, F.A. Hayek, who pointed out the problems with the Keynesian economic model and advocated another model -the Austrian model of economics. The major problem with Keynes' theory according to Hayek... inflation and malinvestment would always create a Boom and then a Bust. The lines were drawn.
With all the money that could be printed to back up his "idea", it wasn't long before Keynesian economics ruled the world... and politicians, especially those who had no interest in being fiscally responsible, jumped for joy!
Saturday, October 23, 2010
America isn't the America you may have thought - the Gloom Zone
With the economy struggling... no matter which political view you espouse to, it's easy to fall victim to all the negative news that's out there. Some might be pessimistic but hopeful while others are downright gloomy. I just wanted to have a spot to round it all up in so I'm designating this the Gloom Zone.
Be warned, some of this information serves a particular purpose or agenda. You have to be sure that if someone is proposing a solution... they first have to have a problem... and so a problem is sometimes created, or highlighted or exposed... it could be from legitimate concern but it also might just be from a good way to make a quick buck or promote one's credibility.
I do believe we have allot of problems in America but I also believe we have just as many solutions. The greatest of those being our heritage of Liberty, Justice, a solid work ethic and a commitment to Innovation.
Now... The Gloom Zone! (this could grow)
US in Worse shape than Greece
27 signs American standard of Living is dropping like a rock
18 Iconic Products that America doesn't make anymore Yahoo Tech Ticker on declining US Manufacturing
The Rich are getting Richer Part Two
10 Signs America is becoming a Third World Nation
Be warned, some of this information serves a particular purpose or agenda. You have to be sure that if someone is proposing a solution... they first have to have a problem... and so a problem is sometimes created, or highlighted or exposed... it could be from legitimate concern but it also might just be from a good way to make a quick buck or promote one's credibility.
I do believe we have allot of problems in America but I also believe we have just as many solutions. The greatest of those being our heritage of Liberty, Justice, a solid work ethic and a commitment to Innovation.
Now... The Gloom Zone! (this could grow)
US in Worse shape than Greece
27 signs American standard of Living is dropping like a rock
18 Iconic Products that America doesn't make anymore Yahoo Tech Ticker on declining US Manufacturing
The Rich are getting Richer Part Two
10 Signs America is becoming a Third World Nation
American Made
Manufacturing in the United States is shrinking! It's no doubt that our manufacturing base, a segment that used to provide more than 25% of our economy is being shipped off to foreign shores. It's just above 10% of the economy today and much of that is related to government. But there are still some left!
Linda G. has found some American made products! (this was a response to iconic products no longer made in the USA)
American Made Light Bulbs - http://www.lightbulbsdirect.com/page/001/CTGY/USABulbs
American Made Utensils - http://www.stillmadeinusa.com/kitchen.html
You got me on the canned sardines - 04/19/10 The lone survivor, the Stinson Seafood plant h...ere in this eastern Maine shoreside town, shuts down this week after a century in operation. It is the last sardine cannery not just in Maine, but in the United States. http://cbs4denver.com/watercooler/sardine.canneries.close.2.1631524.html
This is the closest I could find for 'American Made Computer' - http://digitalstormonline.com/# But Otter Box makes a great case for iphones and they're right here in Fort Collins. http://www.otterbox.com/
Couldn't find any railroad parts, but I did find a super cool oil and electric lantern guy http://www.lanternnet.com/
Linda G. has found some American made products! (this was a response to iconic products no longer made in the USA)
American Made Light Bulbs - http://www.lightbulbsdirect.com/page/001/CTGY/USABulbs
American Made Utensils - http://www.stillmadeinusa.com/kitchen.html
You got me on the canned sardines - 04/19/10 The lone survivor, the Stinson Seafood plant h...ere in this eastern Maine shoreside town, shuts down this week after a century in operation. It is the last sardine cannery not just in Maine, but in the United States. http://cbs4denver.com/watercooler/sardine.canneries.close.2.1631524.html
This is the closest I could find for 'American Made Computer' - http://digitalstormonline.com/# But Otter Box makes a great case for iphones and they're right here in Fort Collins. http://www.otterbox.com/
Couldn't find any railroad parts, but I did find a super cool oil and electric lantern guy http://www.lanternnet.com/
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Unlearning... it's much more important than one might think
To attain knowledge, add things everyday. To attain wisdom, subtract things everyday. ~Lao Tsu
As important as it is to learn new things sometimes it's just as important to unlearn things.
This is a video of one of the founders of 37 Signals, David Heineimeier Hansson, the creator of Ruby on Rails, given to students of the Stanford MBA Program. (58 min)
It's entitled "Unlearn your MBA" and I think he makes some very important points. He also make some rather controversial statements. Some of them being:
96.7% of his college education was time wasted.
Veer away from the Heavy Management Theory. It's irrelevant.
Communication needs to be simple and straight forward. Cut out the big words!
Planning more than 2 months into the future is just a waste of time.
And there's more!
As important as it is to learn new things sometimes it's just as important to unlearn things.
This is a video of one of the founders of 37 Signals, David Heineimeier Hansson, the creator of Ruby on Rails, given to students of the Stanford MBA Program. (58 min)
It's entitled "Unlearn your MBA" and I think he makes some very important points. He also make some rather controversial statements. Some of them being:
96.7% of his college education was time wasted.
Veer away from the Heavy Management Theory. It's irrelevant.
Communication needs to be simple and straight forward. Cut out the big words!
Planning more than 2 months into the future is just a waste of time.
And there's more!
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
######## = Prosperity!
Warning... this blog is under construction. You may need to come back because I'm adding more as I go along.
OK... here's one for the Halloween party! A Question: Two and a half billion people live on less than two dollars a day, the average annual income for the world is about $8,700. Yet the median income in the USA is over $47,000! Why is the average American so rich?
Ask people!
The answers may amaze you! Few people really know. I got the idea from watching John Stossel's latest show on Why is America so Rich? But I must admit when I ask people I really am shocked by how little people know...
Most just have no clue... some might concoct something from a movie they saw.... some will suggest... Exploitation, Resources, Banks, Democracy, our Military... hmmm... eh...No!
The answer should be loud and clear... it's ######. And the big reason we are having an economic downturn... the erosion of #######. Curiosity comes in many forms. People will certainly be curious when they notice their wallet is empty. Their friends may have been hauled away to jail for breaking one of those millions of rules... oh well... too bad for them... another might have disappeared after they lost their job, then their home... they might have just been lazy... but when the time finally comes that a person realizes they just don't have as much as they thought they did... they might start to think... Why?
Inflation: Defined
"The embargo is expanding” beyond Japan, said one of the three rare earth industry officials, all of whom insisted on anonymity for fear of business retaliation by Chinese authorities.
This from an article entitled "China said to Widen it's Embargo of Minerals" in the New York Times.
China mines 95 percent of the world’s rare earth elements, which have broad commercial and military applications, and are vital to the manufacture of products as diverse as cellphones, large wind turbines and guided missiles. Any curtailment of Chinese supplies of rare earths is likely to be greeted with alarm in Western capitals, particularly because Western companies are believed to keep much smaller stockpiles of rare earths than Japanese companies.
Most people, even many of the "experts" define inflation as what happens when the price of something goes up at the store. "Inflation is an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy as a whole." according to about.com. This definition has been promoted by the government and Keynesian economists for some time. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) certainly is the tool we use to detect inflation... isn't it? Well actually no... the rules that govern the CPI are rather mysteriously slanted to hide cost increases. Real Clear Markets covered this in an article called "Government Stats Hide Inflation Truth"
This from an article entitled "China said to Widen it's Embargo of Minerals" in the New York Times.
China mines 95 percent of the world’s rare earth elements, which have broad commercial and military applications, and are vital to the manufacture of products as diverse as cellphones, large wind turbines and guided missiles. Any curtailment of Chinese supplies of rare earths is likely to be greeted with alarm in Western capitals, particularly because Western companies are believed to keep much smaller stockpiles of rare earths than Japanese companies.
Most people, even many of the "experts" define inflation as what happens when the price of something goes up at the store. "Inflation is an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy as a whole." according to about.com. This definition has been promoted by the government and Keynesian economists for some time. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) certainly is the tool we use to detect inflation... isn't it? Well actually no... the rules that govern the CPI are rather mysteriously slanted to hide cost increases. Real Clear Markets covered this in an article called "Government Stats Hide Inflation Truth"
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
The New Rules of Money
1971 was not just one of those years... It was the beginning of the new rules of money according to Robert Kiyosaki. It became very clear with the introduction of what would later be called a 401k in 1974. The old rules of money had been around for a long time but they had been showing some signs... they weren't working so well. I can't explain it any better, listen to Robert Kiyosaki.
Robert Kiyosaki has published several books that are very relevant to the new rules. But first the "Old Rules":
1. Go to School to get a good Job
2. Work Hard
3. Save Money
4. Buy a House
5. Get out of Debt
6. Invest for the Long Term
7. Diversify
Robert's "New Rules of Money":
1. Get a good financial education (get familiar with Austrian Economics)
2. Know the difference from a Job and Work (Cashflow Quadrant)
3. Hedge not Save
4. Know the difference between an Asset and a Liability (Cashflow)
5. Know what Good Debt and Bad Debt is (Debtors can be Winners)
6. Know the difference between Buy, Sell and Fool (The Greater Fool Theory)
7. Follow One Course Until it's Successful (Don't Diversify, FOCUS)
Robert Kiyosaki has published several books that are very relevant to the new rules. But first the "Old Rules":
1. Go to School to get a good Job
2. Work Hard
3. Save Money
4. Buy a House
5. Get out of Debt
6. Invest for the Long Term
7. Diversify
Robert's "New Rules of Money":
1. Get a good financial education (get familiar with Austrian Economics)
2. Know the difference from a Job and Work (Cashflow Quadrant)
3. Hedge not Save
4. Know the difference between an Asset and a Liability (Cashflow)
5. Know what Good Debt and Bad Debt is (Debtors can be Winners)
6. Know the difference between Buy, Sell and Fool (The Greater Fool Theory)
7. Follow One Course Until it's Successful (Don't Diversify, FOCUS)
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Innovation: The key to the future
New ideas can move mountains. Just look at what products such as cell phones have done over the past twenty years. However, as powerful as an idea can be... restrictions to those ideas can be just as great. Today, there is somewhere near 1 billion cell phones in existence yet not one cell phone is manufactured in the United States. A country that at one time used to be the pinnacle in manufacturing and technology.
This is why getting a good education is significant. And as a society encouraging that education understanding how it will effect the economic well being of that society.
When I say "education", I'm refering to something much different to what is being called education in most settings. Education has become Indoctrination in most of our educational institutions. If innovation is going to flourish students need to learn more independent thinking, problem solving and creativity. One will rarely see this taking place in most classrooms. Even at the University level... many industries, fearing it may spawn competition has slowly syphoned off creativity in favor of standard acceptable practices... when it comes to a profession. Even many scientists have fallen victim to following the money (mainly in the form of grants) over actually following a passion for curiousity and discovery.
Although it is now fairly clear that Global Warming and man made carbon dioxide as a connection to it has been proven to be a hoax concocted to provide a new global source for taxation and political control of industry. The added emphasis on carbon dioxide alone has led to innovation. Here is just one example... a new rocket fuel that uses carbon dioxide. It not only could fuel a rocket but it could also be an important step in furthering space exploration since the spacecraft could refuel itself instead of having to carrying enough fuel for a roundtrip.
This is why getting a good education is significant. And as a society encouraging that education understanding how it will effect the economic well being of that society.
When I say "education", I'm refering to something much different to what is being called education in most settings. Education has become Indoctrination in most of our educational institutions. If innovation is going to flourish students need to learn more independent thinking, problem solving and creativity. One will rarely see this taking place in most classrooms. Even at the University level... many industries, fearing it may spawn competition has slowly syphoned off creativity in favor of standard acceptable practices... when it comes to a profession. Even many scientists have fallen victim to following the money (mainly in the form of grants) over actually following a passion for curiousity and discovery.
Although it is now fairly clear that Global Warming and man made carbon dioxide as a connection to it has been proven to be a hoax concocted to provide a new global source for taxation and political control of industry. The added emphasis on carbon dioxide alone has led to innovation. Here is just one example... a new rocket fuel that uses carbon dioxide. It not only could fuel a rocket but it could also be an important step in furthering space exploration since the spacecraft could refuel itself instead of having to carrying enough fuel for a roundtrip.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Freedom... it's not just an idea... it makes good business sense!
I put together and did a speech to a local group on a very interesting book I found at the library. It caught my attention right off the bat because the cover exclaims... WORK SUCKS! Indeed, many can identify with this... so my compliments to the one's who thought the title up. The book discusses a new type of management technique. Much like the one discussed by General Paul Van Riper in my previous post. A working environment where the employees are only responsible for their results. Results Only Work Environment, ROWE for short. The founding fathers called it freedom...but hey... copyright laws and such... you know the drill.
This book was released several years ago and although it does have real examples of success, it does have a huge hill to climb because most businesses have become archaic top down organizations where independent thought is frowned upon and effective leadership is rarely recognized.
This is certainly a tough sell in those environments, where trust isn't even considered an option let alone possible. This has been expressed in several blogs but I like this particular one, written by Lance Haun and entitled 'ROWE is dead and I am sad'. Mr. Haun writes that there's three reasons why ROWE is hard to implement in most businesses: 1. HR doesn't trust the managers or the employees; 2. Manager's don't trust their employees; 3. Managing by results scares everyone. So essentially he feels the typical working environment is one of little trust and lots of fear. I'd say from my experience... he's right on! He does admit however that some forward thinking business with enough motivation to compete will eventually implement ROWE. Ah! An opportunity!!
This book was released several years ago and although it does have real examples of success, it does have a huge hill to climb because most businesses have become archaic top down organizations where independent thought is frowned upon and effective leadership is rarely recognized.
This is certainly a tough sell in those environments, where trust isn't even considered an option let alone possible. This has been expressed in several blogs but I like this particular one, written by Lance Haun and entitled 'ROWE is dead and I am sad'. Mr. Haun writes that there's three reasons why ROWE is hard to implement in most businesses: 1. HR doesn't trust the managers or the employees; 2. Manager's don't trust their employees; 3. Managing by results scares everyone. So essentially he feels the typical working environment is one of little trust and lots of fear. I'd say from my experience... he's right on! He does admit however that some forward thinking business with enough motivation to compete will eventually implement ROWE. Ah! An opportunity!!
Time... there may be a new way to think about it!
I stumbled across this and boy...it really blew my mind how relevant this information could be. This could indeed be a very important discovery! I have wondered why some things motivate some people and why others just don't seem that motivated at all...and then a certain situation transpires and they flip. This definitely gave me some new insight.
There are people that perceive the present as the most relevant, others look to the future or the past... and that can make a huge difference in what they find important! This most definitely has applications in the workplace, medicine as well as everyday living! And what's even more interesting is this can be geographic "as you near the equator you find more 'present' minded people", this could be specific to cultures and societies... and it could actually determine an individual's lifestyle. All things that the entrepreneurial spirit could serve!
The Time Paradox: The New Psychology of Time That Will Change Your Life
There are people that perceive the present as the most relevant, others look to the future or the past... and that can make a huge difference in what they find important! This most definitely has applications in the workplace, medicine as well as everyday living! And what's even more interesting is this can be geographic "as you near the equator you find more 'present' minded people", this could be specific to cultures and societies... and it could actually determine an individual's lifestyle. All things that the entrepreneurial spirit could serve!
The Time Paradox: The New Psychology of Time That Will Change Your Life
In command but out of control
That doesn't sound very healthy but it is the essence of what made America great. Most leaders don't realize the power they have within their grasp and I believe that is going to change. This is going to be a very healthy change. And one that could ignite an entirely new era that may very well recognize the principles that this country was founded on. Unfortunately, it will probably change because we have no other option. And that may not be a very pretty picture. The current system is falling apart around us and as most try to apply the old rules that don't work they become more bitter and confused.
The problem really is most people don't understand that the world doesn't function in a linear fashion... most systems don't function that way. Take for example a jet airplane... it is a very linear system. It functions for a very specific purpose and all the parts and pieces are made for their specific function. As long as each piece functions properly we have a airplane capable of flight. However, most things don't function in that same fashion. Think of a chessboard... 64 boxes but if we consider all the possible moves that could be made just in those 64 spaces we end up with a number of possibilities so large that even a computer struggles with the number. If you consider all the pieces...all the moves each can make... the complexity continues to become more and more impossible to figure... and this is just a chess board. Now look at something like weather with millions of potential inputs and you start to conclude that although some claim artificial intelligence is right around the corner... the truth is the world is not linear and therefore these problems can't be solved by linear thinking. People are very non-linear and thus, although we've hammered round pegs into square holes for centuries... it generally ends up failing miserably at some point. What leaders and entrepreneurs need to realize is... it's not about telling people what to do... it's pointing out why and letting them figure it out.
Now this isn't something that is easy to wrap most people's brains around... and if you really start to take the time to think about these ideas. You could spend allot of time thinking about them and maybe end up with a headache. Luckily examples are starting to pop up all over and with out further ado let me introduce you to a few of them.
The first is a General that in effect used Chaos theory to wipe the floor with the US military in a wargame called Millennium Challenge 2002. Retire General Paul Van Riper.
The second is a intersection. Outside of Bristol in England.
Leadership and Education
In Command and Out of Control (forgive the video repetition)
Turn off the traffic lights?
Isn't it wonderful! When given a purpose and a reason... people just do it! No need for control.. control is the feedback.
The problem really is most people don't understand that the world doesn't function in a linear fashion... most systems don't function that way. Take for example a jet airplane... it is a very linear system. It functions for a very specific purpose and all the parts and pieces are made for their specific function. As long as each piece functions properly we have a airplane capable of flight. However, most things don't function in that same fashion. Think of a chessboard... 64 boxes but if we consider all the possible moves that could be made just in those 64 spaces we end up with a number of possibilities so large that even a computer struggles with the number. If you consider all the pieces...all the moves each can make... the complexity continues to become more and more impossible to figure... and this is just a chess board. Now look at something like weather with millions of potential inputs and you start to conclude that although some claim artificial intelligence is right around the corner... the truth is the world is not linear and therefore these problems can't be solved by linear thinking. People are very non-linear and thus, although we've hammered round pegs into square holes for centuries... it generally ends up failing miserably at some point. What leaders and entrepreneurs need to realize is... it's not about telling people what to do... it's pointing out why and letting them figure it out.
Now this isn't something that is easy to wrap most people's brains around... and if you really start to take the time to think about these ideas. You could spend allot of time thinking about them and maybe end up with a headache. Luckily examples are starting to pop up all over and with out further ado let me introduce you to a few of them.
The first is a General that in effect used Chaos theory to wipe the floor with the US military in a wargame called Millennium Challenge 2002. Retire General Paul Van Riper.
The second is a intersection. Outside of Bristol in England.
Leadership and Education
In Command and Out of Control (forgive the video repetition)
Turn off the traffic lights?
Isn't it wonderful! When given a purpose and a reason... people just do it! No need for control.. control is the feedback.
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